Domain King, Rick Schwartz.
Rick Schwartz made an early bird post yesterday; a lot of Saturday party animals apparently slept in and missed the monumental messages it conveys, which affect all domainers.
We are therefore analyzing it for your own “Monday Quarterback” enjoyment!
Rick Schwartz: “The Big .CON Becomes the Big .Gamble and that brings into play winners and losers. Those that will make .money and those that will lose .money.”
What it means:
Generic TLDs that pertain to be the new .com are in fact a gamble with your money; if you get the right domains you might make money, but most likely you will lose the shirt off your back.
Rick Schwartz: “To many it is obvious that this is poised to have a lot of losers. But only losers focus strictly on the losers. There WILL be winners. I expect most if not all will be surprised by the headwinds they face and the challenges we as investors and marketers KNOW they will have to deal with.”
What it means:
Lemmings will jump onto the gTLD bandwagon in drones, drowning in the process. The smart investors will avoid putting all their eggs in one basket, and will make money by focusing on their success, instead of the peril of others.
Rick Schwartz: “The marketplace is going to pick those winners. It won’t pick the losers. They will die on the vine all by themselves.”
What it means:
The blind followers of the success of others are expected to perish by not improvising.
Rick Schwartz: “Folks, this is the fun part. It takes 20 years to get to the fun part. History taught me that. Life taught me that. I think the extensions poised to do the best may be the ones around for a while. This breathes new life in .TV, .US, .info, .Org, .Me, and maybe even a .biz.”
What it means:
Open your eyes and ears: the money making TLDs are already here, they aren’t the ones around the corner. It will take a long time for the new gTLDs to be proven successful or not. That’s a lifetime in waiting, are you willing to take that risk?
Rick Schwartz: “Funny how I am the out of touch one when it comes to some. But I deal in what is and in facts and many of them are using the unknown and hopes as a way to compete with a market that already EXISTS as opposed to one that MIGHT materialize. Some are always chasing shiny objects like dogs chasing a car. So with 1900 and an unlimited amount of dogs the first question you would ask is which one could really breakaway and be meaningful? None? 1? 10? 100? 1000? Which ones? Any?”
What it means:
With new gTLDs in the thousands, there is no indication which one will become successful. Are you willing to test them all, instead of focusing on the proven champions? The new gTLD operators will definitely love to get your money, but can they guarantee success and profit?
Rick Schwartz: “There may be some limited gold in each of those. Maybe not. Flipping quick may be the best bet if .mobi, .xxx, .biz, .whatever are any historical examples.”
What it means:
Judging from history, the early adopters pay the price by getting keywords that can be flipped quickly. Beyond that, you will be trading the leftovers at an increased risk and cost.
Rick Schwartz: “.Travel has been trying to break out for a long time, their window of opportunity is in jeopardy as I see it. They have had a hard time getting this thing going when there was virtually no competition, how does it work now when 1900 others join him?”
What it means:
Consider this analogy: if there is little success when there is minimal competition between non-Com TLDs, what is going to happen when there is cut-throat competition? Which gTLD will be the one that stands out from the rest?
Rick Schwartz: “I have bought into many .whatevers. I have several hundred. But they don’t pay the bills. They ARE the bills! But each year I weigh the new information and see how each domain fits into the future. Some I keep investing and some get cut loose. I would have been much better off flipping these domains, but flipping is not my game. Holding long-term is. I think .whatever is a flipping game and those that buy into the hype are your marks. I mean customers.”
What it means:
Selective investment can help you determine whether a TLD is a loser or a winner. By heavily investing in new, unproven TLDs, you risk owning dead weights that only add to your operational costs year-round. Domains are like stocks, the most valuable ones are to be held long; day-trading and shorting stock can be perilous, just like flipping a large number of domains in new TLDs.
Rick Schwartz: “And with dozens or maybe hundreds of companies flailing to stay alive, there will be employment opportunities the likes of which this industry has never seen before. Lawsuits will be flying for many years to come just as the dust is starting to settle over .com land. A few MAJOR .whatever losses can expose another weakness that .whatever may have to face as folks get “Cute” about picking new names and infringe on others. It’s all coming.”
What it means:
The gTLD territory comes with a lot of legal battles that are expected to follow the launch of these new domain extensions. While it will be a boost to job creation initially, some of these players might succumb to legal or other problems. The territory is uncharted and the early adopters will define the rules of the game. Anything is possible, to be earned or lost.
Rick Schwartz: “The calm before the storm. 1900 barkers barking. Some may know what they are barking about. Most won’t. But they will have to spend money marketing or they will not break through all the noise. Like I said, MANY will die on the vine. Some will die because their .crap extension just stinks and has no commercial or social value. Some will die because their marketing sucks. Some will die because they have no marketing plan at all. But most will die because they will be buried before they even start. Smothered to death by the shear size and magnitude of what is coming and the timing that comes with it.”
What it means:
For now, we can all sit and watch as the gTLD operators play their game of hype, inviting investors and domain registrants to buy their warez. There will be a lot of promotion and money spent in order to paint these new gTLDs in the best light possible. The truth is, most of the new gTLDs have little value to domain investors and they will be naturally excluded from any future growth. Lack of growth equals death.
Rick Schwartz: “So while I see many failures, I also see so many ways to make money as things unfold. Those with cash will have investment opportunities. Those that have advertising space and visitors will have advertisers. In time those advertisers will be many more than the advertising outlets and things like that drive prices and profits back up.”
What it means:
The overall plan will determine the viability of gTLD operators. Budget, strategy and acquisition of key talent will decide their immediate and long term future. The industry is about to be rejuvenated, but only the best will survive.
Rick Schwartz: “So while we have been at ebb tide for a very long time, that period is coming to an end and it dovetails perfectly as the economy starts regaining some of its umph. That’s why I see things improving and possibly improving dramatically. Quickly. Strongly.”
What it means:
The times of uncertainty are coming to an end; there will be no more gray areas as the economy decides the winners and the losers. Those with a solid plan will strike gold in a big way.
Rick Schwartz: “So while FEAR seems to be the driving force in this industry today, I only see opportunity in the unknown of what is to come. It .whatever craps out, .com goes thru the roof. If an extension breaks out, we all get to do what we know all over again. So where exactly is the downside other than confusion? Heads we win, tails we win. And if the coin lands on the side, we win. And if the coin gets lost, we win.”
What it means:
We have the unique opportunity of making winning decisions, by observing carefully as the ultimate test is being performed. It’s a win-win situation that will either multiply the value of the .com or will declare new successful models that follow the .com paradigm. Observe carefully, execute swiftly. Waste no time on dead weight acquisitions. Do not follow blindly.
Rick Schwartz: “Need, want, desire. Those that keep that in mind are going to have a better time dealing with reality than those that want to ignore it. And you can have all 3 and still have a disaster. Like going on a blind date. The need, want and desire are all there, then the person walks in and need, want, desire headed out the back door.”
What it means:
Have yourself a strategy and a plan, and leave nothing to fate or luck. Focus on those elements that will help you attain your goals, while at the same time preparing an exit strategy in case everything fails. Nothing is promised or expected, it is all up to you to make it happen.
Many thanks for the valuable lesson, Rick! 😀 We hope everyone is paying attention. 😀
This post is 100% true!
